Okay, so Uber's stock is down 8% today, and the usual suspects are chiming in. But let's cut through the noise and look at what the data's actually telling us. We’re seeing a classic standoff: insiders selling, analysts hyping. Which side of the ride-hailing road are we on?
First, the concerning bit. Over the last six months, Uber insiders have been active, to put it mildly. Seventeen transactions in total, but here's the kicker: sixteen of them were sales. Dara Khosrowshahi, the CEO, dumped 450,000 shares for an estimated $43.7 million. Tony West (legalese title: "See Remarks") sold 112,500 shares for about $11.2 million. And so on. Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER) Shares Down 1.7% on Insider Selling
Now, before everyone screams "abandon ship," insider selling isn’t always a disaster. People have mortgages, taxes, yachts. But the scale here is hard to ignore. West selling 1.76% of his holdings isn't just rebalancing a portfolio; it's a statement. And CFO Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah decreasing his position by 21.29%? That's not a vote of confidence.
Here's the question nagging at me: Are these executives seeing something the rest of us aren't? Are they cashing out near a peak, anticipating headwinds? The SEC filings are public, but the why remains a mystery.
Contrast that with the analyst chorus. Twenty firms have issued "buy" ratings on Uber stock recently. TD Cowen, BMO Capital, DA Davidson, UBS – all shouting "buy, buy, buy!" The median price target is $110.0. UBS even set a target of $122.0 on November 5, 2025.
It's a bit like watching two different movies. The insiders are subtly (or not so subtly) hitting the exits, while analysts are rolling out the red carpet. This discrepancy is… notable (parenthetical clarification: that means concerning).
And here's a thought leap: How are these analyst ratings generated? Are they genuinely independent assessments, or are they influenced by the firm's other relationships with Uber (investment banking, for example)? I'm not suggesting anything nefarious, but it's a question worth asking.
Hedge fund activity offers a slightly more nuanced picture. We see 1,471 institutional investors adding shares, and 916 decreasing. It's not a stampede in either direction. Pershing Square Capital Management L.P. purchased a new stake worth $2.2 billion – a substantial bet. But, as always, the devil is in the details. Which funds are buying now, and which are trimming positions? The aggregate number hides potentially crucial shifts in sentiment.
I've looked at hundreds of these filings, and the timing of these moves is everything. What were the market conditions when Pershing initiated their position, and what's their average cost basis? These are the questions that really matter.
And then there's Congress. Six trades in the last six months, five purchases and one sale. It's a small sample size, but still… Members of Congress have access to information the rest of us don't. Are they genuinely bullish on Uber, or are they just… well, members of Congress? I'll let you draw your own conclusions.
Uber's Q3 earnings did exceed expectations, with revenue up 20.4% year-over-year. Morningstar raised its fair value estimate from $90 to $93. They cite a "narrow moat rating based primarily on network effects." After Earnings, Is Uber Stock a Buy, a Sell, or Fairly Valued?
But here's the rub: Morningstar also assigns Uber a "Very High Uncertainty Rating," citing the "potential impact of autonomous vehicles." That's the elephant in the room. If AVs disrupt the ride-hailing market, Uber's entire business model could be upended.
It's a bit like valuing a Blockbuster store in 2005, while ignoring the rise of Netflix. The present looks good, but the future is far from certain.
